Article Detail

FILUIGI'S FOOTBALL INDEX JOURNEY PART 70 A SHIFT IN STRATEGY FOR CRAZY VALUE


Posted on 03 October 2020

Hello again! It’s been another hectic fortnight as I once again shift my strategy. I’ve used the 5x IPD promotion to shift out of some holds and into the higher end of the market. Over the summer it wasn’t my plan to hold too many ‘premium’ holds in the portfolio, but with all of the (in my opinion) cray drops everywhere in the market I’m betting on the players I’ve brought in to benefit most immediately whenever there is a bounce back in the market, as their likely dividend returns simply can’t be ignored for too long. My only issue is bringing them to a point where I have 150 minimum of each, especially when I keep seeing other players drop to become what I perceive to be crazy value (Bruno Fernandes is an example of a premium I really want to get into right now but simply don’t have the capital to). On the bright side, despite all of the drops in the portfolio Kramaric (the man the myth the legend) came in with my biggest dividend in a single day to date - £112! Some absolutely insane yields and I’m more than happy to hold him in this type of form, getting 2 goals against Bayern is no easy feat!

DEPOSITED: £100

BOUGHT:

DYBALA X50

TER STEGEN X40

DEPAY X130

RASHFORD X40

COMAN X30

GIAN-LUCA WALDSCHMIDT X100

KANE X10

MARTIN TERRIER X100

GORETZKA X100

SOLD:

THIAGO ALCANTARA X50

CURTIS JONES X120

OUSMANE DEMBELE X120

AOUAR X100

RICHARLISON X50

MAHREZ X100

A quick evaluation of my sales shows somewhat of a desperation to move on from some holds to get on these more premium players. I’m very satisfied with my Jones and Richarlison sales as they were purchased in advance of a moment of hype for them and sold on for a decent profit. As noted in the reasons why I bought these players, I’m still very confident that they are both value having both gone back down from their peak prices, so don’t be surprised if I end back on them if another drop occurs!



As for Aouar and Mahrez, these sales are more of stagnant holds - with Aouar he seems to actually be falling in price the more likely a move to Arsenal looks and having seen how both Werner and Havertz have fared on the market following a few underwhelming performances in the league, I don’t want to be holding Aouar through a drop if he doesn’t immediately perform well for Arsenal or not leave Lyon, and would rather get back on once he’s shown some proven quality there (that is, if he does move).


With Mahrez, he’s a quality hold PB wise but City seem a bit uncertain in this early period, and whilst I still think he’s good value, rotation issues and the age make moving for a more immediate profit too tempting to resist.


Finally, for Dembele and Thiago these sales are following mild peaks - Dembele’s United rumours (which I personally don’t believe hence the sale, although I made this same move with Bruno…) and Thiago following an impressive debut for Liverpool (I still hold 150 of him to take advantage if he hits the ground running)



As for the purchases, keeping in line with the new premium agenda I’ve topped up on Kane and Dybala, as well as brought Depay and Rashford into the port.

I’ve justified the Depay purchase as an ‘upgrade’ on Aouar. He’s proven as Lyon’s main man and far cheaper than he was when I ditched him last season following an ACL injury. The price seems to be suppressed at the moment due to strong rumours linking him to Barcelona, but for me I don’t see it happening. I can’t see Barca forking out the amount Lyon want for him when to me he doesn’t seem like he would be an essential part of their first team.

Of course, by the next blog update he could be there and this could look quite stupid! But for around the £3.20 mark on a bid currently if he does stay at Lyon and start putting in some more key man performances I can’t see him staying below £4 for too long.


In Rashford’s case this is me trying to get in a little bit more media dividend wise. Rashford returned 65p in media dividends last season and whilst you can’t guarantee media season upon season, a young Englishman playing in both the England and Manchester United team should nab a few wins over the course of the season. On top of that, his PB credentials are nothing to sniff at either so if United start looking as dominant as they did at the end of last season he could nick a few wins there! An all rounder pick, which is exactly what I want from a premium player.