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FILUIGI'S FOOTBALL INDEX JOURNEY PART 69 RIDING THE ORDER BOOKS STORMS


Posted on 19 September 2020

Wow, what a ****show! It’s been a very jarring fortnight to go from the wave of optimism last blog out to the implementation of order books and the ensuing drops. The drops post order books were to be expected as it was ‘paper’ profit in fairness, but the bigger drops over the weekend really did take me by surprise! The biggest positive was that there was/is so much insane value around currently (Kane was available for the mid-£3 range at one point!), but I just do not have the capital for huge deposits to sweep up all the deals, so I’ve had to rely on a bit of short-term trading to get on at some bargain prices.

DEPOSITED: £170

SOLD:

MARQUINHOS X100

WERNER X80

ROSS BARKLEY X150

AOUAR X50

BOUGHT:

KANE X40

JOTA X90

INSINGE X30

CURTIS JONES X60

TER STEGEN X60

COMAN X20

DYBALA X30

OUSMANE DEMBELE X10

KEITA X50

FLIPPED:

LUKAKU X100

WILLIAN X80

Lots to process here, so let’s start with the sales! Before everything kicked off in the portfolio, it was revealed that Marquinhos had COVID19, which gave me a very easy decision to instant sell him on a small spread for roughly a pound’s worth of profit. The whole purpose of purchasing him was to have a chance at the lucrative IPDS on offer currently and when that fell through for some games I made the decision to jump out and put the money elsewhere.


Aouar’s sale was timed just before his red card thankfully as at that point he was one of the few players with a ‘stable’ price and again just a case of wanting to use that money to get on some other players without having to take a big hit selling him. I still hold 100 as whether he stays at Lyon and improves his scores or goes to a different club and sweeps up some media (If it’s EPL) I want to be around for that.


Following those ‘middle of the road’ trades is one good trade and one poor trade. I managed to sell my Werner for around £5.80 each, as whilst I am still very confident about his EPL prospects, in the current volatile market he has dropped down to below £5 on the bid after an average performance against Brighton. I was lucky here as I sold before the game to again utilise the money I had on a higher costing player and redistributing that to both Kane and Dybala. I am very interested in buying Werner back but at the moment with Kane and Dybala being my ‘premium’ picks for at least until December I may just put more capital into them rather than spread out too thinly.


Amidst all the panic on the drops over the weekend I decided to bite the bullet and instant sell Ross Barkley for around 30p less per share than what I bought him for- a rough loss to take, especially as I got on him again a while back due to FOMO only to be let down again, but with the amount of quality that Chelsea have brought in this window I just can’t see him getting a consistent run of games in the team anymore, and at the point of selling there was just so many higher quality players dropping it made the decision easier for me. I was interested in him moving to Everton but now I’m not even sure he’d make it in their midfield! One to watch from afar for me now.


A quick interlude for the flips of the fortnight- when I was culling parts of my port left right and centre I managed to pick up Willian and Lukaku on extremely low prices. Willian had dropped to his pre Arsenal debut price and Lukaku had dropped to roughly £1.40. Overall I made around £60 buying these players near their lowest and selling on the bounceback, which almost makes up for the Barkley loss! (Almost).


Onto the new additions to the portfolio - Curtis Jones enters the port as a youth player I was looking at getting last season, but I thought I’d missed the boat when he hit £1.50, little did I know he would double! With his price taking a savaging for no particular reason I’m happy to get in for the mid £2 mark and hold until he does something to grab attention again. I’m tempted to sell at £3 but as of typing this the price seems to be on a downswing, so I may be looking to pick up enough to get to 100 shares, the ‘base’ level for me.


Everybody else buy wise has just been players I’ve perceived as value owing to some big drops in their price recently. The two biggest examples for this were Kane who I’ve already mentioned- at anything below £5 I would be happy to get up to 200 shares in him as despite the negative style of play under Jose, he’s such a name in English football that I can at the very least rely on some media wins throughout the season be it for domestic or national club stories, providing a small source of dividends which seem to be more important than ever before at this rate.

If I’m not earning much through capital appreciation at the moment, I’d rather orient myself more towards proven dividend returners. The second is Diogo Jota, who I was initially looking to offload but at around £1.20 I can’t say no to the price given what I believe his potential to be. Wolves don’t have Europe this year so he won’t be able to recreate his heroics of double hat tricks in the Europa last year but with a good game or two in the Premier League I don’t see his price staying below £1.50 after that - the issue is just re-establishing himself as a mainstay in that team!


As a quick aside I’ve decided to keep my portfolio value tracker at the buy price as opposed to the midpoint price, as I’m not looking to sell at anything below the buy price in most instances. Perhaps when the market is less volatile I’ll switch to it, but for now buy price it is.

INVESTED: £6320

WORTH: £10,418.06