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FILUIGI'S FOOTBALL INDEX JOURNEY PART 39 THE GREAT CENTRAL DEFENDER CULL


Posted on 02 December 2019

Hello again! A big week for my portfolio as I’ve made some cutthroat decisions regarding a lot of my defenders, choosing to reinvest the money from my centre backs into other areas of my portfolio. For a while on my blog now I’ve been complaining about the lack of effectiveness my defender acquisition was, and it’s been costing me both actual share value in them, as well as some big opportunity costs from missing out on rises elsewhere in the market. This week I’ve said ‘no more!’ and sold/listed almost every defender in my portfolio. An overreaction? Only time will tell (It probably was)

SOLD:

JONATHAN TAH x150

BENJAMIN PARVARD x110

BRUNO FERNANDES x120

NICO SCHULZ x150

VAN DIJK x130


BOUGHT:

ADAM OUNAS x100

PIOTR ZIELINSKI x40

REISS NELSON x150

LEON BAILEY x100

HANNES WOLF x50

TONI KROOS x50

LEON GORETZKA x100

EDEN HAZARD x20

AOUAR x10

BARKLEY x10

I’m going to start by lumping in 3 sells together- Tah, Schulz and Van Dijk. All 3 were purchases that I unfortunately timed towards the peak of their price and since then all 3 have underperformed for me and dropped in price. Tah and Van Dijk are losing out to the new matrix seemingly preferring fullbacks who can get extra points for crossing into the box, whilst their goal threat has been low this season (of course Van Dijk won an 8p defender dividend after scoring 2 goals, not what I wanted to see having sold him a few days prior).

Van Dijk is actually the biggest failure for me as he had cost me the most as I bought him expecting far more media and PB than he eventually brought me, and I’ve held him for such a long time it was a shame to let him go. Schulz in the meantime is struggling to nail down a place in a Dortmund team that is seemingly barely keeping itself together, another big loss but one I’ve had to take. I’ve also listed all my Akanji shares for the reasons above.

Sold defenders on Football Index

Amongst all this I’ve made a trade I was actually quite satisfied with, I’ve sold off Parvard after talking about him last week. To have such a big rise and pick up a few dividends with it so soon after me buying him, I’m happy to get out now before any pull back on the price happens. Of course, he could just keep flying, but with the winter break coming up I think he’s probably hit his ceiling until the Bundesliga resumes. A trade to possibly revisit, but upon reflection I wouldn’t buy him at his current price.

Sold Benjamin Pavard Part 39

Back to poor trades and this was a panic exit on Bruno Fernandes. I was feeling pretty smug having topped up on him over the last few weeks with his price steadily rising amid transfer speculation, but over the course of the week his price dropped sharply with the news he had signed a new contract at Sporting. Since then it’s been rumoured that he is still keen on leaving and he had just signed a new contract so Sporting would have a way of getting extra money for when he leaves them, but I’ve been burned on transfer trades in the past and wanted to get out as quickly as possible when the new contract news came in (market selling, Instant sell was not an option as the spread was far too big)- it turned around a £40 profit into a £15 loss on this trade, and if I was patient his price would recover a bit a few days later, a trade to learn from, but an annoying instance for now.

Bruno Fernandes Sold 120 Part 39

In terms of purchases the only top up I’ll touch on is Kroos. Having had such a meteoric rise over the past few months, I felt a bit hesitant topping up on him in fear that the market will rebalance his price soon. However, he’s been one of the more consistent dividend returners in my portfolio, and by now you’ll know that I’m trying to make it so that when I win dividends, it’s a significant amount. 250 shares in Kroos makes him my joint 2nd biggest holding shares wise, so when he wins dividends it’ll be a decent amount. I always automatically go to the best possible scenario in my head when it comes to thinking about this, a 16p win on a gold day with Star Man/Top position - for Kroos that would be £40, which I would be chuffed with.

The best possible scenario is obviously not the frequent one, but with Real always being a dangerous team in the Champions League in recent seasons, and the gold day dividends on offer in the later rounds, along with Kroos’ baselines being so good he could nick it without even a goal, I’ve convinced myself he’s worth going in for, despite concerns about potential injuries or drop offs in form.

Toni Kroos Purchased Part 39

In terms of new purchases, Leon Goretzka is one I’ve had my eye on for a while and his recent win has convinced me to buy him. There’s a risk here with Bayern and Germany’s rotation, as well as where he plays on the pitch as from reports it seems that he alternates between playing deeper in midfield and heading further up the pitch in some games. When he’s playing deeper, he’s not a hold worth having as his goal threat just isn’t there to go along with his decent baselines but when playing further up he can occasionally challenge. At his current price even after the recent rise I’m willing to take the punt that he’ll take a few dividend wins this season when he does play further up. I would be happy with 2 dividend wins before the end of the Euros with him and I intend to top up over the Winter Break.

Leon Goretzka Purchased 100 Part 39

Leon Bailey and Reiss Nelson are 2 purchases I will lump together here. Both are youngsters with potential and both are in exciting teams. Leverkusen were good for PB last season and I’m betting on an upturn in form, Bailey himself actually had an excellent game against Bayern over the weekend so I got lucky with the timing of the purchase.

Arsenal in the meantime are looking for a new manager so whilst they are not a good PB team, the players could experience a ‘new manager bounce’ price rise if they’re involved in the new manager’s plans, similar to price rises that have recently happened with Spurs.

These are longer term holds as they’re not in the first 11 week in week out yet, and with Bailey being Jamaican/Nelson not getting in the current England team, there’s a long way to go yet, but the price is kind in my opinion considering the youth bubble of a few months back and with the recent marketing push being announced, I think another excellent performance from either of these players over the next few months could see a decent rise.